2 February, 2026

Global Investment Views - February 2026

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The GIV elaborates on the latest views, convictions and outlook of our Global CIOs, Investment Platforms and the Amundi Investment Institute.

Markets content with a 'not too cold' economy

The year began eventfully, with the US using its military strength and economic leverage to achieve President Trump’s foreign policy goals. The Fed receiving subpoenas and military action in Venezuela did not move oil prices and risk assets. But his threats to the sovereignty of a NATO ally sparked temporary volatility, with markets eventually recovering from that scare and US lagging the other regions. Fiscal profligacy and inflation concerns in Japan pushed bond yields up.

Inflation: the key to the ECB’s policy puzzle

Market pricing with respect to ECB rate cuts is asymmetrical, implying they do not expect a rate cut. However, we think the disinflation trajectory will be maintained in the eurozone (EZ), with price pressures undershooting the ECB’s 2% target. As a result, for us, the probability of interest rate reductions is much higher than the probability of a hike. We are also monitoring how the more dovish voices in the ECB could gain prominence and that could further tilt the case towards rate cuts.

Prefer structural stories over euphoria

US and European equities reached record levels in January despite mixed economic and geopolitical newsflow. Now, valuation dispersion across regions, together with earnings strength, will determine which markets outperform. The reporting season now under way will test EPS growth and, more importantly, capex. In the US, we are concerned about concentration risks, political uncertainty, and misallocation of capital in the AI space. These risks do not justify the current valuations that markets are demanding.

Strengthen safeguards, finetune risk

The economic backdrop in the US and Europe is reasonable, but there are indications of slowing US labour markets when valuations are high across many asset classes. Additionally, recent geopolitical newsflow underscores the need for caution, with an overall mild pro-risk stance. Our positive views on equities and credit are supported by a solid profit cycle, robust momentum, and ample liquidity. Specifically, we explore areas of value in EM, and would like to underscore the need to amplify safeguards through gold and reinforce hedges in US and European risk assets.

Read the full article on the Amundi Research center

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