Key takeaways

  • Once again, Sanae Takaichi delivers - this time with a decisive general election result that provides a much needed public endorsement of her growth strategy for Japan.

  • Just two weeks before the vote, markets were still pricing a 50/50 chance of the LDP (Liberal Democratic Party) securing a simple majority (>233 seats). Nevertheless, the eventual outcome - an absolute majority for the LDP alone (>310 seats) - is a landslide few anticipated. 

  • This result gives the LDP firm control of the Lower House, consolidating Takaichi’s leadership and her “Sanaenomics” agenda while providing Japan with political stability in the medium term.

  • We view the election outcome as positive for Japan’s equity market, though it is likely to exert near term pressure on the Japanese yen and Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs). That said, the knee-jerk reactions in the FX and rates markets have been much calmer than expected. 

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