10 July, 2026

Portfolio Strategy in a Low-Trust World

# Geopolitics

Summary

Executive summary

Over the past few decades, investors operated in an environment of relative stability where the big power plays between countries could often be ignored. Political risk, wars or tumultuous elections mainly affected emerging markets or were treated as temporary shocks to a system geared towards efficiency.

That world is fading. If we were to pick one overarching theme that is shaping the emerging global order, it is the erosion of trust. Realising their vulnerabilities, countries are seeking to reduce external dependencies, while increasing their leverage over others. What counts is not just military or economic power, but also the ability to withstand pain. Efficiency is no longer the dominant economic logic; resilience is.

The nascent ‘low trust’ world is shaped by persistent conflict, economic rivalry, an intensifying arms and technology race and efforts to diversify and rewire supply chains as security and control become central to policymakers around the world.

The dynamics unleashed threaten many things we have taken for granted such as freedom of navigation, trade, borders, energy and connectivity: It only takes a hostile fishing boat dragging an anchor to cut critical underwater communication cables or to lay mines to close a vital waterway.

In this environment, geopolitics is no longer simply a source of episodic volatility. The shift from efficiency to resilience, from global integration to strategic control, and from peace dividend to security premium has consequences for investors.

In a world that remains deeply interconnected, the preparation to navigate potential ruptures is what will shape future investment trends. The winners will be those that are agile and strategic enough to adapt to the new geopolitical realities.

At the same time, geopolitical developments now shape the macro backdrop and capital allocation. Therefore, the ‘low trust’ world requires investors to embed geopolitical analysis throughout the investment process.

Read the full article on the Amundi Research Center

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Portfolio Strategy in a Low-Trust World

Summary

Executive summary

Read more

Read the full article on the Amundi Research Center