28 July, 2026

Refined products remain tight as geopolitical tensions constrain global fuel markets across regions

Summary

Highlights

Prices of refined petroleum products, such as gasoline, stay elevated relative to crude oil.
Product markets remain tight, reflecting refining capacity and operational constraints.
The dynamics of refined product prices are important for consumer and producer price pressures, real personal income and consumer confidence.

2026.07.27 - Weekly Market Directions - Header.jpg

In this edition

In volatile energy markets, refined petroleum products are at elevated levels relative to crude oil and to the pre-war situation, suggesting that product markets remain tight. As reported by the International Energy Agency in its July Oil Market Report, exports of refined products from the Middle East were still much lower than before the US-Iran conflict, compared with crude flows, even during the period of de-escalation, suggesting that some major refineries’ operations remain constrained. At the same time, the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, including attacks on Russian refineries, has reduced Russian supply, with an impact on exports and domestic deliveries. Finally, Asian refineries are still operating below normal levels. The UAE could potentially help ease these supply constraints by bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, but only partially. Moreover, renewed tensions in the Middle East, and the risk of disruption along new routes also for oil, make the situation complex.

Key dates

29 Jul

US monetary policy rate decision

30 Jul

EZ GDP Q2 and economic confidence, US personal consumption and income, GDP Q2

31 Jul

JP retail sales, industrial production and CPI, EZ CPI, China PMI, US consumer confidence

Read the full article on the Amundi Research center

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