22 July, 2025

China’s growth set to hit target in 2025

Summary

Highligts

Despite the ongoing trade war with the United States, China’s growth remained resilient thanks to trade diversification* into non-US markets.
China is set to reach its 5% growth target for 2025, with less need for additional fiscal stimulus this year.
While ongoing trade negotiations will keep uncertainty high, we see areas of resilience across emerging economies.

RC - 2025.07.21 - Weekly Market Directions - Fig1.png

In this edition

China’s economy recorded a higher-than-expected 5.2% YoY GDP growth in the second quarter of 2025. This confirms that the world’s second-largest economy has held up well so far despite the US tariff policy, supported by front-loading by exporters (increasing production ahead of export orders to avoid higher government taxes or tariffs that may be implemented after a deadline) and resilient shipments to markets outside the United States. However, domestic consumption weakened as government subsidies began to phase out in some regions. While this may lead to some softening in GDP growth in the second half of the year, China remains on track to achieve the government’s average growth target of 5.0% for 2025.

Key dates

22 July

Fed Chair Powell Speech, South Korea Consumer Confidence

24 July

ECB interest rate decision, EZ Composite PMIs, US Composite PMI

25 July

UK Retail Sales, US
Durable Goods
Orders

*Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss.

Read the full article on the Amundi Research center

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